The Saudi Ministry of Finance has announced recently the Pre-Budget Statement for FY2027, estimating total expenditures at approximately ⃁ 1.4 trillion and total revenues at ⃁ 1.2 trillion.

The deficit is projected at around 3.6% of GDP, as authorities’ fiscal approach balances support for economic growth and continued implementation of development priorities, with the need to maintain fiscal sustainability, according to a ministry statement.

The ministry briefing also noted that the Saudi economy continues to benefit from economic reforms introduced since the launch of Vision 2030. These reforms have helped diversify the economic base, improve the business environment and strengthen the private sector’s role. This has been reflected in the performance of non-oil activities, their continued contribution to economic growth and the economy’s resilience to external shocks.

The continued implementation of economic diversification initiatives and reforms is expected to support revenues over the medium term. Total revenues are projected to reach approximately ⃁ 1.2 trillion in 2027 and rise to around ⃁ 1.35 trillion by 2029. Vision 2030 initiatives have also helped increase non-oil revenues from approximately ⃁ 166 billion in 2015 to ⃁ 505 billion in 2025, strengthening the stability and sustainability of public revenues. Total expenditures are estimated at ⃁ 1.39 trillion in 2027, rising to around ⃁ 1.54 trillion by 2029, reflecting continued spending on development, strategic priorities and projects with economic and social returns.

The statement also indicated that the deficit in 2027 is projected at approximately 3.6% of GDP. This reflects a fiscal policy framework built on long-term financial planning and fiscal sustainability, enabling the government to pursue balanced fiscal policies across economic cycles, support growth, and continue implementing priority projects under Saudi Vision 2030.

Economic and geopolitical developments in 2026 have affected the pace of growth in the kingdom. Preliminary estimates indicate that real GDP declined by 3.6%, driven by a projected contraction of approximately 21.8% in oil activities. Non-oil activities, meanwhile, are expected to maintain positive growth of around 3.2%, helping mitigate the impact of the decline in oil activities.

BUSINESS AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Saudi Arabia's Business Confidence Index (BCI) stood at 56.6 points in September 2026, a slight drop of 0.1 points from August's 56.7 points. The index is measured on a 0 to 100 scale, on which 50 is neutral so the reading remains in optimistic territory. General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) said the result reflects the establishments' confidence in the stability of economic activity and continued growth across sectors.

Sector results were mixed. The industry sector rose 0.5 points to 56.3, on higher confidence in overall performance and expected sales for the following month. Services slipped 0.7 points to 55.4, and construction fell 0.2 points to 57.1. In both of those sectors, the decline was attributed to lower confidence about input costs, in the current month and the month ahead.

The longer series shows how far the index has moved over the past year. After holding between 60.7 and 62.0 from September 2025 through February 2026, it dropped to 52.1 in March, a monthly fall of 14.2%. It recovered gradually through the spring, reaching 54.5 in April and 55.6 in May, and has since held in a narrow band of 56.5 to 56.7 from June through September. The current level remains around five points below the September 2025 reading of 61.7.

Saudi consumer confidence remained optimistic through the second quarter of 2026, with the general Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) standing at 110 points in June, according to GASTAT. The index runs from 0 to 200, with 100 as the neutral level, and GASTAT noted that it has stayed above neutral every month from January 2023 through June 2026.

Over the quarter, the general index moved within a narrow range, recording 110 points in April, 113 in May, and 110 in June. GASTAT described the performance as stable, with a slight tilt toward optimism. Including the first quarter figures, the index read 116 in January, 113 in February and 114 in March, which means the second quarter readings sit somewhat below those at the start of the year.

The Economic Conditions Index, which captures consumers' assessment of the economy, followed a similar pattern at a higher level. It registered 123 points in April, 129 in May, and 124 in June, a positive assessment throughout. Earlier in the year, it stood at 129 in January, 130 in February, and 132 in March, so its April reading was the lowest in six months.